BC vs. UVa Preview

The last time Boston College had a stellar one-two scoring combo in their backcourt was a few years ago when Troy Bell and Ryan Sidney patrolled the Heights. The reason I bring this up is that fans might be reminded of that old combo when Virginia’s Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds come to Conte Forum to play on Saturday.

Trust me, you don’t want to miss the opportunity to see these guys live.

Singletary and Reynolds will lead a Virginia team that comes in 9-5 and 1-1 in the ACC. The Cavaliers are coming off a tough 10-point loss against North Carolina in a game in which they played even with the Tar Heels until the final minutes.

The near upset at Chapel Hill wasn’t a big surprise to some pundits. Coming into this season expectations were higher than they’ve been in a while at Virginia. Coach Dave Leitao has all 5 starters from last year’s team that finished 7-9 and 7th in ACC. Before Virginia’s tough loss to UNC, they lost a buzzer beater at home against Stanford. The Cavaliers would love to get a road victory at Boston College to add to their resume and end their losing streak.

Virginia Leaders
PPG Singletary 19.1
REB Cain 6.3
AST Singletary 5.1
FT% Singletary 92.7
BLK Cain 0.9
STL Singletary 1.3

Boston College Leaders
PPG Dudley 18.9
REB Dudley 9.3
AST Rice 5.7
FT% Rice 76.5
BLK Williams 5.3
STL Dudley/Marshall 1.6

Why Virginia Will Win (Virginia’s Strengths/ BC’s weaknesses):

Throughout the season, BC has had problems keeping opposing guards off of the scoreboard. With that being said, things don’t look promising for this weekend’s game, as Virginia is led by the best guard duo in the ACC in Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds.

There isn’t really any weakness with Singletary and Reynolds in terms of their offensive game. Both players have solid outside range, and both are also exceptional at driving to the hoop and scoring.

Singletary is a better ball handler than Reynolds, and thus drives to the basket more than his teammate. When Singletary is streaking to the hoop, and an opposing forward moves over to stop him, Singletary is not afraid to leave his feet like he’s shooting and then make a pass to an open teammate underneath. Sean Williams will have to be careful of this.

An additional concern for the BC coaching staff is the Cavaliers' ability to get to the foul line and convert their free throws. Virginia is 2nd in the ACC in FT%, and 2nd overall in attempts despite playing fewer games than any other team in the conference. This could be a crucial factor if this game is close and comes down to a game of free throws.

Why Boston College Will Win (BC’s strengths/Virginia’s weaknesses):

A common trend that’s happening when Virginia loses games is that their big men are getting eaten up defensively. A few nights ago against UNC, Tyler Hansbrough scored 18 and Brandon Wright had 16. Against Stanford, all three Cardinal forwards scored double digits. When Virginia loss to Utah, Luke Nevill poured in 26 points and 11 rebounds (Nevill averages 17.8 ppg and 8.4 rpg). Earlier in the year against Purdue, forward Carl Landry scored 19 points. Just like last season, Virginia’s big men are having trouble containing their opponent’s frontcourt players all season long.

What does this mean for BC? It means Christmas might have come early for guys like Jared Dudley and Sean Williams. Whether those two guys post the Virginia defenders up, or get open via the flex offense they should get some pretty good looks underneath.

One additional advantage BC will have is rebounding. Although Virginia sits near the top of the ACC in rebounding margin don’t let that stat fool you. The Cavaliers have beefed up their statistics against a lot of lesser opponents. Make no mistake about it, the Eagles will have the rebounding edge in this game.

Match-up to watch:

Tyrese Rice and Sean Marshall vs. Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds: - The BC guards were getting slammed earlier in the season for their poor overall play and rightfully so. Boy what a difference a few weeks makes. Lately the duo has been carrying the Eagles offensively with and without Jared Dudley in the lineup. Over the last 5 games, Rice is averaging 22.4 ppg and 7.2 apg, while Marshall is averaging a mind blowing 23.8 ppg, 8 rpg, and probably more importantly just 1 turnover per game. Additionally, Marshall has provided great support on the defensive side of the ball.

Come Saturday it will be a good test for Rice and Marshall to see if they can continue their hot play against Virginia’s outstanding guards. It might be too much to expect Marshall and Rice to both have another 20+ point performance in them. In fact, there’s probably better chance of the Boston Celtics winning two games in a row, than… ahhh nevermind actually. A more realistic goal for BC is for their guards to score around their season average, and hold their Virginia counterparts right around their average. If that happens, then I think BC would come out on top.

For Virginia, they need their two backcourt stars to do more than they’ve already been doing this year. It’s a scary thought, but possible.

Final Analysis: Just consider some of the underlying storylines coming into this game: Both teams still need some quality wins to get into the "Dance", Sean Singletary and Jared Dudley are the top two scorers in the ACC, 5 of the top 12 scorers in the ACC are playing in this game, Virginia hits the most 3-pointers per game and BC hits the least, BC is trying to stay undefeated in league play. In other words, there are lots of different sub-plots in this game.

However, I think this game boils down to the following question: can the Virginia guards exploit the BC guards more than the BC forwards can exploit the Virginia forwards? I’d say no. If Virginia got to play the Eagles a few weeks ago then I think the Cavaliers would win this game, but right now Marshall and Rice are playing really good basketball. Singletary and Reynolds will get their points, but I think Marshall and Rice won’t be too far behind them.

On the other side, I think the BC forwards can really overmatch Virginia’s big guys. The BC frontcourt will out score, out rebound, and overall outplay the Cavaliers frontcourt. Even with everything being pretty equal, let’s not forget that this game is at Conte Forum and not at Virginia’s beautiful John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavaliers are 8-1 at home, and 1-4 neutral/away. That’s just one more reason I like BC to edge out a victory by a basket or two.

Next up for BC - 01/16 vs. Miami (9-8, 2-1): It wouldn’t be unreasonable to say that Miami has as many quality wins, if not more than undefeated Clemson this season. Miami is a little tough to figure out, because they’ve beaten teams like Georgia Tech and Maryland, but lost to teams like Buffalo and Binghamton. All that this means is that the Eagles have to be ready for a strong defensive effort from the Hurricanes.