Round 1: BC vs. TTU Preview

At 12:25 on Thursday it will be time for everyone to put their “game faces” on. If you have any questions about what a game face just ask Bobby Knight!

It should be fun to see Boston College take on Bobby Knight and his Texas Tech Red Raiders in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Ironically, neither BC or Texas Tech is coming off of a very fun previous game. The Red Raiders were embarrassed by Kansas State 66-45 in the Big 12 Tournament, and BC was drubbed by North Carolina 71-56, in the ACC Tournament Semi-Finals.

The Red Raiders have gone on a nice little run since around Valentine’s Day winning six of their last 8 games, included a road win at Texas A&M during that span. Of course it should be noted that A&M was the only NCAA Tournament team that they beat during that stretch, as many of the wins were compiled against the bottom of the conference.

Nonetheless, Tech’s recent games have been more impressive than BC’s recent success. The Eagles come in losers of 5 out of their last 7 games, and their best basketball seems to be behind them. Does BC have enough left in the tank to make it by the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament?

Texas Tech Leaders

PPG: Jackson 20.2
REB: Zeno 5.3
AST: Zeno 3.2
FT%: Voskuil 88.0
BLK: Dora 0.5
STL: Jackson 1.4

Boston College Leaders

PPG: Dudley 19.0
REB: Dudley 8.3
AST: Rice 5.5
FT%: Rice 78.1
BLK: Blair 2.1
STL: Dudley 1.3

Why Texas Tech Will Win (Texas Tech’s Strengths/ BC’s weaknesses):

It’s pretty impossible to ignore the coach that patrols the Texas Tech sidelines. Honestly, there’s not much more that I can say about Bobby Knight that hasn’t been said about him before. The bottom line is that Knight has won 3 NCAA Championships, so he has a pretty good idea how to coach in March. No offense to Al Skinner, but Knight clearly holds the coaching edge over him in this game.

Normally, what you can expect from a Bobby Knight coached team from an offensive standpoint, is a team that makes solid, crisp passes, and takes very good care of the ball. This year’s team is no exception as the Red Raiders are ranked 21st nationally averaging only 11.8 turnovers per game. If BC starts playing sloppy like they have been lately, this could wind up being a huge factor in the outcome of the game, because Tech isn’t going to give them any freebies in return.

Another big factor in the outcome of the game will be Texas Tech’s star guard Jarrius Jackson. To put it simply, the Texas Tech offense goes through Jackson. There aren’t too many times when Jackson doesn’t touch the ball at least once during an offensive sequence. So, if BC decides they want to shutdown Jackson then they’ll win the game right? Well, that’s easier said than done. Even against great defensive teams like Texas A&M, Jackson has still managed to pour in 30+ points.

Most of Tech’s scoring is going to be done by Jackson, or one of his backcourt mates, Martin Zeno or Charlie Burgess. Both Zeno and Burgess log over 30 minutes a game like Jackson, so get used to hearing their names called Thursday.

You can also expect this trio to pour in some 3-pointers in the game. These three players are a big reason why the Red Raiders rank 8th nationally in 3-point field percentage as well, as they all shoot 43% or better from behind the arch.

Why Boston College Will Win (BC’s strengths/Texas Tech’s weaknesses):

What about the characteristics that don’t shine through in this year’s Texas Tech team that usually shine through in a Bobby Knight coached team? A huge deficiency in this team would have to be their defense. To be frank, the Red Raiders are pretty mediocre on the defense end. Yes, Tech only gives up 68 ppg, but that’s mostly due to their slow down pace of basketball. A more telling statistic is Texas Tech’s 254th nationally ranked field goal percentage defense. Yikes.

Have you noticed yet that I haven’t mentioned any of Tech’s forwards yet? The reason for that is that there’s not much to say about them. Knight rotates a handful of big men in and out of the game, seemingly waiting for one of them to produce. Apparently, nobody’s caught his eye on a regular basis as of yet.

Because of Tech’s lack of talent up front, I think Jared Dudley could wind up having a huge game, because there’s really nobody on their roster that can guard him. If Dudley simply puts up right around his season average in points and boards, BC will be in good shape.

Even if Dudley doesn’t have a big game, the Eagles still can win if they get solid performances from Tyrese Rice and Sean Marshall. To that statement you might say to me “Yea, no kidding”. Well, in truth that’s the biggest difference between the personnel of each team. If Jarrius Jackson doesn’t have a great game, then the Red Raiders won’t win, whereas if Dudley is average he can be picked up by one or two other teammates.

Match up to watch: BC’s flex Offense vs. Texas Tech’s Man-to-Man defense

The Red Raiders play man-to-man defense, but it doesn’t involve a lot of intense pressure. Instead, Tech plays a more loose man-to-man, as they tend to play a step off of their opponents. The reason for this is Knight doesn’t want to wear out his two big scorers, Jackson and Zeno.

What this means for BC is that they can most likely expect plenty of good looks at the top of the key, and from the corners of their flex offense. If Sean Marshall has his shot going for him then he is someone who could really take advantage of this.

Final Analysis: Will the real Jared Dudley please stand up? In 3 of the last 5 games Dudley has registered 15 points or less, and 6 rebounds or less. The Eagles need their ACC Player of the Year to come through if they are to survive the 1st round of March Madness. If you were a betting man, would you bet Dudley will have a good game or bad game on the big stage? My bet is Dudley shines on Thursday.

The biggest concern for BC has to be their carelessness of late during their losing skid. The Eagles can’t have one of those 20 turnover specials like they had against Georgia Tech recently. Texas Tech doesn’t play an up-temp style, so perhaps this might help BC to slow down their passing, and cut down on long outlet passes. In turn fewer turnovers mean less easy points for Tech, and it forces the Red Raiders to find someone besides Jackson and Zeno to score.

I like BC in this game. They simply have more variables that they are in control of than Texas Tech does. If the Red Raiders win, it’s going to be because BC handed them the game, not because they outplayed BC. The Eagles take this one by 5-8 points.

Next up for BC: Winner of Belmont/Georgetown or End of Season