Picture yourself at 5:15 in the afternoon on a Friday, and you’re trying to take a left hand turn across a busy road when the light’s green, only you can’t because the traffic heading in the opposite direction is nonstop, and the light isn’t constructed with a green “arrow” to give you a chance to go. Your only chance to move is when your light turns red and you quickly jet across the road and hope a cop is not looking. During this entire team, impatient people are waiting behind you and honking their horn telling you to just go and get out of their way.
Well, I kind of feel like that’s where Boston College (7-0, 3-0 ACC) finds itself right now. Teams like Arizona State, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, and West Virginia are sitting behind BC saying “Get out of our way”! I’m sure at first those teams figured BC would eventually stumble, and stumble out of the Top 5. Now the teams behind BC are realizing that Thursday night in Blacksburg may be the best chance that the Eagles have to lose this season.
BC will certainly face a huge challenge when they roll into Lane Stadium, a place that hasn’t shown much hospitality for visitors over the years, particularly on Thursday nights. Virginia Tech (6-1, 3-0 ACC) is 8-1 hosting Thursday night games over the years, with their lone loss coming against BC. Overall Frank Beamer is 13-2 on Thursday nights, so there’s a track record of the coach being able to get his team prepared for a weeknight game.
Speaking of track records, it appears that the 1st score of the game might be more important than normal. The Hokies come in having won 34 straight games when they get the 1st score of the game. Of course, BC has won 2 games this year when their opposition has scored 1st, so it doesn’t appear to be as vital to the Eagles. Here’s how I see the rest of the game shaking out:
Sideline Reporter: Advantage ESPN
OK, I had to get this out of the way right off the bat. With this game running against the World Series, it’s important for ESPN to grab the audience’s attention in any way possible. So, I ask you the reader --- When the cameras cut to the report from the sidelines will you be more likely to keep the channel on for Erin Andrews on ESPN or Chris Myers on FOX? Yea, I thought so.
When Virginia Tech runs: Advantage Boston College
It would be pretty hard for me to sell to anyone outside of Blacksburg that BC isn’t going to win this match-up. That’s because the Eagles come in with the #1 rush defense nationally, allowing only 46.4 YPG. It’s not like BC has played chumps all along the way either. GT’s star RB Tashard Choice was held to only 36 yards on 15 carries last month, so you know this hasn’t been a fluke.
VT and RB Brandon Ore will pose a formidable test for BC, but you couldn’t tell that by looking at Ore’s stats on the year. Only twice this season has Ore rushed for over 3.3 YPC in a game, and that was against Ohio’s 104th ranked rush defense, and William & Mary who has the 106th ranked defense in the Football Championship Subdivision (Formerly Division I-AA).
The reason for his disappointing performance is teams are wisely taking away VT’s rushing game and forcing them to pass. I fully expect to see Craig James’ head explode when he sees what little holes that Ore has to run through.
Look for the Eagles to give up more than their average on the year, but not much more than twice that on Thursday.
When Virginia Tech Passes: Advantage Boston College
VT’s passing game is probably the “butter face” portion of their otherwise very good team. If there’s one thing that’s holding this team back it’s their total lack of a competent attack through the air.
Sean Glennon started off the year as the team’s signal caller, but lost his job after looking LSU made him look like a high school quarterback. Tyrod Taylor took over for Glennon, and wasn’t much more effective passing the ball, but Taylor is much faster and more elusive than Glennon, and in turn was going a better job at moving the offense. In VT’s last game against Duke, Taylor went down with an ankle injury and his status is questionable.
&Hmmm, let me see, a gimpy running QB with a weak offensive line against a very stingy defense. I’ll take my chances with the defense.
When Boston College runs: Advantage Virginia Tech
For the first three years of his career, Andre Callender had to split carries with LV Whitworth despite the fact that it seemed Callender was more of a playmaker than Whitworth. Enter stage right, Coach Jags and OC Steve Logan, who had enough faith in Callender to make the senior RB the #1 back this year. Boy has that decision paid off. Callender is currently 4th in the ACC in rushing and is looking to be the 1st BC RB to go over 1,000 yards in quite some time.
Although Callender has had a great year, he hasn’t faced a rush defense as tough as the swarming Hokies. Even without injured star LB Vince Hall, VT has enough good tacklers on their side of the ball to slow down Callender. Also, playing without the injured Ryan Poles at G will hurt the BC running game this week.
When Boston College Passes: Advantage Boston College
I’m giving BC just a slight edge in this match-up, because until further notice I’m not giving any defensive secondary the nod over Matt Ryan. The Eagles and Ryan come in with the 8th ranked passing game in the country, and 1st in the ACC. Ryan has an astounding TD-to-INT ratio of almost 3-to-1, and averages over 300 yards p/game passing. Of course Ryan isn’t accomplishing all of this alone, as the BC QB has been helped by a solid group of receiving options.
That “group of receiving options” might be the key to BC’s success on Thursday. The Eagles don’t have just one or two receivers that they continuously look for like most teams. Usually that style of looking for your “#1 receiver” works to VT’s advantage because they have two very talented CB’s in Macho Harris and Brandon Flowers (Flowers in particular can shutdown any WR in the ACC). However, since BC uses 3 WR’s, a TE and RB in their offense regularly, it weakens VT’s strong CB’s a little bit.
Special Teams: Advantage Virginia Tech
Would it have been a big deal if I had just left this section blank? Does it need an explanation?
It doesn’t take even the most casual fan a lot to figure out that special teams could be a real X-Factor in any game that involves VT. Historically, VT’s biggest special teams strength has been their ability to block punts and kicks. This year, it might be their return game. The Hokies have one of the fastest players in the ACC in WR Eddie Royal, who happens to be one of the best PR’s in the league, and the nation as well. Royal has already returned 2 PR’s for TD’s this season and is averaging 18.5 YPR. As for kickoff returns, Royal isn’t too shabby either at 25.5 YPR. If Royal had one more KR this year he’d lead the ACC in KR’s, but right now he doesn’t qualify.
The real mismatch on special teams is the Hokies clear edge over the Eagles in the kicking game. VT’s K Jud Dunlevy is 10-of-11 on FG attempts this year, including 4-of-5 from 40+ yards. Meanwhile, BC K Steve Aponavicius has been struggling with his PAT’s already missing 3 so far this season.
Final Analysis:
There’s no denying that this will be BC’s toughest challenge of the season. The Hokies have a better chance than any other team in the ACC at slowing down the vaunted BC air attack, and they have a very good chance to slow down BC’s running game.
In addition, the Hokies have been very quiet in terms of blocked punts/kicks this season, which might be a bad thing for the Eagles. Over the last four seasons, the Hokies have averaged 4 blocks p/year, but just recorded their 1st blocked kick of the year in their last game against Duke. In my mind that means they’re due.
Even though VT has a clear edge in special teams to match a very good defense, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to take down the #2 team in the country. The reason being, is that I have confidence that BC can shutdown VT’s offense particularly with Taylor’s health very questionable heading into this game.
On the other side of the ball, I’d look for Matt Ryan to really shine in front of a national audience, and prove why he’s a leading Heisman candidate. Don’t forget, as good as VT’s pass defense is, the two best opponents they’ve faced, LSU and Clemson, both passed for 90+ more yards than they average on the year against VT. Both LSU and Clemson had multiple receiver weapons in their passing game to offset VT’s 2 great CB’s.
The “experts” like VT by a little over a FG which really surprised me. If anything, VT should have been a FG favorite at most. This writer calls for a BC outright victory on Thursday.