BC vs. Virginia Preview

Two teams headed in two different directions--- That’s probably the easiest way to describe Saturday’s contest between Boston College and Virginia.

Both teams came into the year in similar situations: armed with an All-ACC point guard matched up with lots of question marks surrounding their help around them. So far, BC’s PG Tyrese Rice has received the most support from his teammates. Behind Rice, BC has won their 1^st three ACC contests, including an upset win over #21 Miami on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Virginia (10-5, 0-2 ACC) comes in losers of three in a row, including a gut-busting loss at the buzzer to their rival Virginia Tech, on Wednesday night.

Saturday’s game is of enormous importance for the Eagles on their quest to go to “The Dance”. So far, BC has only 2 road victories this season (Michigan, Maryland), and neither victory looks like it’s going to impress the tournament committee, since both teams could end up with sub .500 records. After playing Virginia, BC’s next road games come against UNC, Clemson, and Duke, and it seems unrealistic to expect them to win any of those games. Therefore, it would do the Eagles a lot of good to pick up a solid road victory for their resume against Virginia on Saturday.

Virginia Leaders

PPG Singletary 18.9

REB Joseph   7.8

AST Singletary   6.3

FT% Singletary 84.2

BLK Diane/Tucker   0.7

STL Singletary 1.6

Boston College Leaders

PPG Rice  19.5

REB Spears   7.1   

AST Rice   5.3  

FT% Rice  88.9

BLK Blair   4.2 

STL Rice   1.7

Why Virginia Will Win (Virginia’s Strengths/ BC’s weaknesses):

Virginia’s offense is most effective when Singletary can get by his defender and penetrate towards the hoop. From there he can get an easy shot, or dish off to an open teammate after the defense collapses. This obviously can’t take place when a good defender is guarding him. I suspect Rice will guard Singletary a lot in this game, and although Rice has gotten better each year on the defensive end he still has a ways to go.

In addition, you’d have to think that the Cavs’ might come in with slightly more intensity than the Eagles. Standing at 0-2 in conference play, Virginia can ill afford to pick up another loss at home with a tough trip to Tallahassee waiting in the wings. This really is a must win for Virginia.

Why Boston College Will Win (BC’s Strengths/Virginia’s weaknesses)

Coach K had the most effective game plan I’ve seen yet for stopping the Cavs’ offense, and it may be a tactic that the rest of the ACC uses. Virginia loves to set screens outside the paint to setup their shooters with open jump shots. To stop that, Duke’s defense kept relentless pressure on Virginia’s perimeter players, not allowing them to get any open looks at the hoop or any easy passes to teammates that got open. In turn, it left Virginia’s post players with plenty of room to post up and receive the ball down low, but the Cavs didn’t seem to have any of intention on getting their big guys the ball. Instead, they continued to force tough shots and make bad passes to teammates that were closely guarded away from the hoop. Duke’s tight man-to-man D kept Virginia out of rhythm all night on the offensive end.

BC showed as recently as the Miami game that their guards are capable of playing solid man-to-man defense, even if it might not be as solid as Duke’s D. If Al Skinner wishes, his team can use this same tactic to slow down the Cavs.

An additional trend I noticed with Virginia is that on the defensive end they play man-to-man defense almost exclusively, and every time one of their guys gets picked they switch off of who they’re guarding. This kind of defense can make BC’s offense run like a well oiled machine if the Eagles do a good job of sealing off their men after a pick.

Match up to watch: Tyrese Rice vs. Sean Singletary

This is one of the best PG Match-ups that you’ll see in the ACC this year, as Rice comes in 2^nd in the league in scoring and 5^th in assists, while Singletary is 3^rd in scoring and 1^st in assists. What this means is you can expect each of them to touch the ball almost every possession. Also, it’s expected each of these guys will guard each other, so with that much time spent D-ing up the ball handler will it spell foul trouble for one of these players? If so, that will vastly affect the outcome of the game.

Final Analysis:

Nobody can deny giving Singletary props for being 3^rd in the ACC in scoring and 1^st in assists, but that doesn’t tell the whole story of his season. Singletary has been uncharacteristically very sloppy with turnovers, averaging just under five turnovers per game….Yikes! To put this in perspective--- Compared to his freshman season, Singletary has already committed more turnovers this year in 372 less minutes of play. Clearly, the PG is trying to make up for the loss of scorer J.R. Reynolds by trying to force the issue on offense, and it isn’t working. Unless Singletary changes the way he’s playing overnight, this abundance of turnovers clearly helps BC.

As important as this game is for Virginia, it’s almost as equally important for BC. With 4 days in between games, Al Skinner will have his team ready to come out and play 40 minutes of hard, solid defense to slowdown Virginia.

On the flip side, in conference play Virginia ranks 10^th in defensive PPG. With as hot as BC’s been, look for them to exploit the Virginia defense.

My prediction---The Eagles will win a hard fought contest by 4-6 points.

Next up for BC: 12/26 vs. Virginia Tech

It was considered by almost every preseason prognosticators that VT would be one of the bottom three teams in the ACC. So far, the Hokies are proving those people wrong as they’ve had two exciting victories to start off 2-1 in the conference. VT will be coming into this game fresh off a game against Duke 2 days before...Yikes!