BC vs. UNC Preview

North Carolina Leaders

PPG Hansbrough 22.0

REB Washington 10.1

AST Lawson  5.8

FT% Ellington 89.7

BLK Thompson 1.4

STL Lawson  1.8

Boston College Leaders

PPG Rice  20.0

REB Spears   7.5   

AST Rice   5.1  

FT% Dudley  85.3

BLK Blair   4.3 

STL Rice   1.5

Why North Carolina Will Win (North Carolina’s Strengths/ BC’s weaknesses):

It doesn’t take a brain surgeon, or even a BU grad to figure out that if you’re one of the top 5 team in the country you have a lot of good/great players. UNC is simply a well-oiled machine at this point, as they have several pieces that fit together to make a great team. Some of those features include:

1) Two fantastic guards- Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington are as good as any guard duo in the country. More about them later…

2) Solid Big man down low who can score and defend- There is virtually no big man in the ACC that can stop Tyler Hansbrough, much less score on him

3) Versatile forward who can defend and chip in with points- I compare Marcus Ginyard to the Sam Adams Holiday 12-Pack, because he’s a little mix of the best of everything. The forward is an above average defender, who chips in to average 7 pts, 5 rebound, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

4) Three point shooter off the bench- Danny Green is a nice compliment coming off the pine to SG Wayne Ellington because the two players ensure that there’s always a 3-point threat on the floor for UNC.

5) Duo of power forwards who can bang the glass- Count on Deon Thompson and Alex Stephenson to grab a combined 10+ boards each.

Why Boston College Will Win (BC’s strengths/North Carolina’s weaknesses):

The flex offense might be just the cure to slow down the Tar Heels. When the flex is run properly, it involves a lot of redundancy of the same motion mixed with a sudden change. That sudden change is usually a perfect pick to seal off a defender to open up a teammate or even the player who set the screen. If a team isn’t focused (which occasionally the Tar Heels aren’t) it can be a long night for them on the defensive end. Let’s not forget either that in UNC’s 5 ACC games they are allowing 79 PPG, which is dead last in the league.

Another factor that might keep BC in the game is their 3-point shooting. The Eagles are 1^st in conference play in 3-point FG%. If BC gets hot on the perimeter it could play a huge part in making this game more interesting than the experts think.

Match up to watch: Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders vs. Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington: If BC is going to shock the world and pull off an upset it all starts with this match up here. If the BC backcourt doesn’t out perform the UNC back court than they have no shot in this game. Rice and Sanders have to dominate their backcourt opposition both offensively and defensively. Even if BC’s backcourt plays even with UNC’s backcourt it will not be enough. That’s a very heavy burden that Rice and Sanders have to carry. It will be interesting to see how they handle it.

Final Analysis: UNC is simply too loaded. Where exactly is the weakness for this team? Check out some of their rankings in ACC play:

1^st in Offensive PPG

2^nd in scoring margin

1^st in FT %

1^st in rebounding margin

1^st in offensive rebounds

2^nd in assists

1^st in assist/turnover ratio

      Of all the gaudy stats above, the ones that concern me the most are the rebounding stats. The Eagles have had problems grabbing boards as recently as last weekend, and now they have to go against an absolutely loaded front line. BC is going to constantly struggle to get rebounds all game, and particularly anytime that Tyrelle Blair is not on the floor.

      It’s tough to find a scenario where BC would win this game, unless they shoot lights out like they did against WF. The scary part is that might not even be enough either. I have no doubts that Rice and Sanders can hold their own, but my concern is the BC frontcourt. There are just too many possible mismatches for BC to overcome. UNC wins this one by double digits.

Next up for BC: 02/02 vs. Clemson: The road doesn’t get a whole lot easier for BC, as they next have to go up against arguably the 3^rd best team in the ACC. The Tigers have a lot more holes on their team than UNC, so it’s a more realistic opportunity for the Eagles to get an upset win.