Two-A-Days: NC State

With just over three days until the kickoff of the 2009 season, we are halfway through our two-a-day run through the upcoming schedule. Yesterday we covered Virginia Tech and Florida State. At this point in the season the Eagles are bound to be better and different than we saw at the start of the season. In that light, we dedicate the morning session today to the NC State Wolfpack.

Last Year: A losing record is a losing record. As the great man said, you are what your record says you are. In the case of NC State, they were a 6-and-7 team with a .500 conference record. That was enough to get them into a bowl game, but that is not why they hired the legendary Tom O'Brien to lead the team. The fans in Raleigh expect championships.

The story last year as the improvement of the offense. Russell Wilson was the main reason. His ability to break down the defense with his feet gave the offense another dimension. As a result, the offense finished fifth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense. The passing game was much better, finishing third in the conference.

The defense, however, was a different story. They finished last in total defense and scoring defense. The Wolfpack allowed over 26 points per game. The passing defense was particularly bad, finishing 96th in the country. Keep in mind that the ACC was not a QB heavy league last season. So, those numbers are particularly bad.

Why They Could Be Better: Russell Wilson is one year older and should be a more polished passer. He was the All-ACC QB last year as a red-shirt freshman. He only had a 54% completion average last season. So, improved accuracy will only boost his numbers and make him more effective as a scrambler.

He will also have a better line. Three starters are back from last season. This is a line with four upperclassmen starting and three upperclassmen in backup roles. In other words, this is an experienced a deep group. That should keep Wilson safe and maybe get the running game going this year.

The other area where improvement is expected is on the defense. They were horrible last year, so they should improve by accident. With seven returning starters and a revamped secondary, even a small improvement will go a long way toward improving the win-loss record.

Why They Could Be Worse: Wilson would not be the first guy to burst onto the scene only to regress in his second year. In the off-season he was in the doghouse because of playing baseball. He missed most of the spring rehabbing his knee. The job was opened up and Mike Glennon was given a shot to compete.

Along those same lines, there is a history of this with Dana Bible. Quarterbacks often regress under his tutelage. When the player has limited knowledge of the system and just plays, they do well. Once they learn the system and get the handcuffs put on them, the regress.

y The other area is the running game. O'Brien has yet to figure out who he wants to carry the load and that means running back by committee, which rarely works. Unless one guy steps up and owns the job, the running game could be a problem this season.

What To Expect: This could be one of the most interesting games of the season. Both coaches know one another very well and both prefer the conservative style. On the other hand, both will want this one more than any other game on the schedule.

NC State will want to attack the linebackers with short passes and getting Wilson out of the pocket. He is not accurate enough to attack the secondary. BC will want to keep Wilson in the pocket and give up the short stuff that has made Dana Bible a legend.

On the other side, this is when BC will need their QB to carry the team. NC State is not going to be very strong against the pass. They will load up against the run and try to make whoever is starting for BC at this time beat them with his arm. That means the training wheels come off.

Prediction: Mobile quarterbacks always give BC fits and Wilson is a really good in space. He's not Michael Vick, but he is a tough runner when the play breaks down. On the other hand, defense is what wins games and NC State has too many issues on that side to expect a win on the road. BC 24 NC State 20